The Tunsil trade and its reshaping of the NFL

On August 31st, 2019 it broke that the Houston Texans had made a deal to acquire star Dolphins left tackle Laremy Tunsil for a haul of picks, notably two first-rounders. It’s well known how the deal changed the trajectory of the Texans and Dolphins organizations, how Miami spent a year rebuilding only to start on a promising rebuild with its fair share of bumps, while a good start in year one for Houston only led to a dramatic collapse, ultimately leading to Bill O’Brien’s firing and an exodus of every star player of the Texans core. 

The picks moved eventually would lead to the growth of a trade tree, whose effects would directly affect seven teams, six of which would have a major impact. While many teams, beyond these seven, were affected, the trade tree will only focus on the direct effects of the trade. These include the initial picks themselves the Dolphins got back from Houston, or any subsequent transactions involving picks or players that can tie back to the movement of the picks from the Tunsil trade. An example of a direct effect is the infamous Tunsil trade itself, an indirect one would be the aforementioned exodus of star players in Houston and their collapse.

                                                 Houston Texans

The Texans obviously notably got Tunsil himself. Tunsil was a great left tackle in his first two seasons in Houston, posting a PFF grade of 75.8, and 75.4, notably with elite pass-blocking grades of 89.8 and 85.8. Tunsil could have always used some work as a run blocker though a 69.0 in his first year was solid, a 61.0 grade in his second was around average. However he took a nosedive in 2021 with a 60.8 overall grade, though was still strong in pass protection with a 75.2 grade, however, this was only in 5 games as he would be hurt and miss most of the year. While he had a strong start in Houston, with their subsequent collapse, there’s just no justifying the insane price tag Houston paid.

The Texans also got receiver, Kenny Stills. Stills had a 500 yard season and then got released during 2020. Interestingly the Texans actually reacquired the fourth they moved in the 2020 draft, in a trade down. They traded one pick to the Rams, who selected tight end, Bryce Hopkins. The Texans themselves got tackle Charlie Heck and corner John Reid as a result of the trade down.

Ultimately the Texans lost this trade, and it was part of the downfall of a team that had a lot of the pieces on the roster to go far. But how did their trade partner fair?

                                                      Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins trade of Tunsil kicked off a rebuild that led to holding three firsts in the 2020 NFL draft. With the pick from Houston, the Dolphins moved down with Green Bay getting the Packers first and picking 136 back. They would select Auburn corner Noah Igbinoghene and use the pick to trade up with Houston and get guard Georgia Solomon Kinley. Neither has made a real impact, with the former a healthy scratch frequently and the latter posting subpar grades of 51.0 and 57.5 at guard, and likely won’t get many if any starts going forward.

The next season, with everything falling apart in Houston, the Dolphins received the third pick in the 2021 NFL draft. It was evident that QB needy franchises would call, and the 49ers were the ones that put the trade call in. The Dolphins would receive their next three first-round selections. However unsatisfied with the twelfth pick, the Dolphins made a move up with the Philadelphia Eagles, getting the sixth pick in the draft for the twelfth pick, the 123rd pick, and their own first in 2022. The Dolphins would snag Alabama receiver, Jaylen Waddle. In his rookie campaign, he would break the record for rookie receptions with 104 with 1,015 yards and 6 TDs, a great season in a very limited Dolphins offense.

The Texans had also sent Miami a second-rounder in the 2021 draft. With that pick the Dolphins grabbed safety Jevon Holland out of Oregon. Holland had an excellent rookie campaign already establishing himself as a premier safety in the league. A vital part of the defense, Holland had an 84.7 PFF grade, while getting 2 interceptions with 69 tackles, 3 fumbles recovered, and also bringing some quality as a blitzer with 2.5 sacks. So while the 2020 draft had misses, 2021 had heavy hitters, with a game changer at wide receiver and safety being added along with new draft capital from the 49ers.

While the Dolphins failed to progress from 10-6 in 2020 and finished 9-8 in 2021, it seemed they gambled wrong on trading their own pick instead of San Francisco to Philadelphia. They had the 29th selection, however, with star wideout Tyreek Hill on the market, the Dolphins made a trade for him. Tyreek Hill, a top-five receiver in the league, is a big addition for Miami. What will happen with the next pick, will likely remain to be seen in a year.

The haul Miami has gotten while having its misses in the 2020 draft, is an undeniable positive. It could have had more positives, but they have certainly done extremely well with Jaylen Waddle, Jevon Holland, Tyreek Hill, and the potential from an additional first coming from the Tunsil trade.

                                                      Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers moved up for the 26th selection in the 2020 NFL draft and got a quarterback to wait under the wings in Jordan Love. Love hasn’t done much of anything in Green Bay, he’s featured in three games, only one start, in an abysmal loss at Arrowhead against the Chiefs, while playing in relief of Aaron Rodgers disaster start against the Saints and with nothing to play for against Detroit.

Two years in, the results aren’t really encouraging. It's speculated he’ll be traded within the next year. Aaron Rodgers looked like himself again and won back to back MVPs, and now has extended with the Packers. Love will probably not be the replacement. Overall, just a poor selection by the Packers, even at the time it felt too soon to get a long-term Aaron Rodgers replacement.

                                                     San Francisco 49ers 

The 49ers also were in need of a long term quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo is a solid option, but injury-prone and doesn’t have game changing upside. The 49ers decided to move three first-round picks to go from the twelfth to third selection, a move that would be the start of extending the life cycle of the trade tree, sending the picks moved to the 2023 draft. 

Ultimately after a change in speculation from the initial belief Ohio State standout Justin Fields would be the easy selection at third overall, to the belief Alabama’s Mac Jones would be their guy, in the last 48 hours it became clear that the 49ers quarterback was neither of them, rather North Dakota St’s physically gifted Trey Lance. Lance has the upside that Garoppolo lacks to be a game changer with a cannon of an arm that could be one of if not the strongest in the league and being a great runner. He has played in a couple of games, and has shown some promise, though they are not complete performances, though impressive for a player who is a project and not expected to be a year one starter. The jury is still out on whether he is a success or not, but a wise bet would be on Kyle Shanahan getting the best out of Lance and helping him reach his potential. 

                                                      Philadelphia Eagles

The Dolphins immediately wanted to trade back up in order to secure a more preferable pick at receiver which would end up being Jaylen Waddle, so they swung a deal with the Eagles which sent them down to the twelfth. The Eagles would also receive the Dolphins first-round pick in 2022 which would be the fifteenth pick.

Back to the 2021 draft, after a shocking pick by the Denver Broncos taking Patrick Surtain II left Dallas looking to trade down, the Eagles who wanted Alabama star and Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, struck a deal with Dallas to move past the New York Giants and grab their receiver. Smith has played well in a run dominant offense, breaking the Eagles rookie receiving yard record with 916 and getting 5 touchdowns. Smith is poised to be a star wideout in the NFL, something that has been alluding the Eagles. 

                                          Dallas Cowboys

Moving down to the twelfth pick after the shocking Surtain pick, the Cowboys front office had acquired the 84th pick as well. The Cowboys would use the twelfth pick on Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons. Parsons would be a huge hit in Dallas, finishing as the unanimous defensive rookie of the year and finishing second in defensive player of the year voting in a historic year. Parsons played the year as a hybrid between an edge rusher and a linebacker, producing elite results at both spots. Parsons had 13 sacks, 64 solo tackles, and 3 forced fumbles while producing elite results in coverage at linebacker, particularly in the second half of the year. He ended the season as PFF’s highest-graded linebacker by a wide margin at 89.7. With Parsons, Dallas was able to turn around from one of the worst to best defenses in football, and should he stay healthy he is poised to be a future defensive player of the year.

Dallas also used the 84th pick to get a rotational piece at edge rusher Chauncey Golston out of Iowa. A solid piece for the team, but as of right now just a rotational piece. 

                                                     Kansas City Chiefs

As of right now, the Chiefs return from the Tyreek Hill trade is the 29th selection as well as a 2nd and 4th round pick from 2022 from Miami. They also got a 4th and 6th round selection from Miami in 2023. This is soon to change on draft night, but what the Chiefs are to make from their part of the trade tree is to be seen. Replacing Tyreek Hill is a tall task, but Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are the first ones one would trust to make the transition seamless.

                                         Conclusion 

Many franchises have seen a complete change in direction from being involved in the tree. It wasn’t always required for them to get their guys necessarily, but it did shake out that way. While everyone talks about how this put into motion the downfall of Houston and the new era in Miami, the Laremy Tunsil trade and its assets would have major long-term consequences in Green Bay, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Kansas City. With what happened in Kansas City to be determined each of those squads drafted what they hoped would be a great impact player to varying degrees of success.

This isn’t even to mention all of the moves that corresponded to some of the ones in the tree. Dallas and Philadelphia’s trade caused the Giants to trade down with the Chicago Bears, a move that got the Bears Justin Fields, or subsequent trades the Texans would make in blowing up their core. With one desperate move for a franchise tackle, the Texans changed the league’s course for many many years, with the potential fallout of the move extending to nearly half a decade later.